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Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes

Engels, Anita; Marotzke, Jochem; Gresse, Eduardo; López-Rivera, Andrés; Pagnone, Anna; Wilkens, Jan

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  <identifier identifierType="DOI">10.25592/uhhfdm.11230</identifier>
  <creators>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Engels, Anita</creatorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0003-4974-6607</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Center for Sustainable Society Research (CSS)</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Marotzke, Jochem</creatorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-9857-9900</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Gresse, Eduardo</creatorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-5885-0030</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Center for Sustainable Society Research (CSS)</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>López-Rivera, Andrés</creatorName>
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      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Pagnone, Anna</creatorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-9750-0711</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)</affiliation>
    </creator>
    <creator>
      <creatorName>Wilkens, Jan</creatorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-6263-1540</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)</affiliation>
    </creator>
  </creators>
  <titles>
    <title>Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming - social drivers and physical processes</title>
  </titles>
  <publisher>Universität Hamburg</publisher>
  <publicationYear>2023</publicationYear>
  <subjects>
    <subject>CLICCS, Climate Research, Climate Plausibility, Climate Futures, Social driver of decarbonization, Climate tipping points, 1.5°C warming, Decarbonization, Paris Agreement temperature goals, societal transformation for climate change, Sustainable climate adaptation, HCFO, Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, DFG Project number 390683824,</subject>
  </subjects>
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      <contributorName>Aykut, Stefan</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
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      <contributorName>Bähring, Jill</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-9049-9997</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Bassen, Alexander</contributorName>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Beer, Christian</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-5377-3344</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Brovkin, Victor</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-6420-3198</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Brüggemann, Michael</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-7994-3914</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Busch, Timo</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Commelin, Solange</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>d'Amico, Emilie</contributorName>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>de Vrese, Philipp</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-8813-7436</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Engels, Anita</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0003-4974-6607</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Frisch, Thomas</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Fröhlich, Christiane</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>GIGA</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Fünfgeld, Anna</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>GIGA</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Gresse, Eduardo</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
    </contributor>
    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Guenther, Lars</contributorName>
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    </contributor>
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      <contributorName>Guillén Bolaños, Tania</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Hanf, Franziska S.</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Hawxwell, Tom</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>HafenCity Universität</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Held, Hermann</contributorName>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Hoffmann, Peter</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Huang-Lachmann, Jo-Ting</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Huch, Charlotte</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Jantke, Kerstin</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Jarke-Neuert, Johannes</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Johnson, Matthew</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Kleinen, Thomas</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Knoblauch, Christian</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Köhl, Michael</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Kutzbach, Lars</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Langendijk, Gaby S.</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Li, Chao</contributorName>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>López-Rivera, Andrés</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Marotzke, Jochem</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Mosuela, Cleovi</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Müller, Franziska</contributorName>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Neuburger, Martina</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Neumann, Manuel</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Notz, Dirk</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Pagnone, Anna</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Pavenstädt, Christopher</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Pein, Johannes</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Perino, Grischa</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Reveco Umaña, Cristóbal</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Rödder, Simone</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Rothe, Delf</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Rötzel, Theresa</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Scheffran, Jürgen</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Schenuit, Felix</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Schneider, Uwe</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Schröder, Ursula</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Schrum, Corinna</contributorName>
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      <contributorName>Seiffert, Rita</contributorName>
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      <affiliation>Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau (BAW)</affiliation>
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      <contributorName>Sillmann, Jana</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-0219-5345</nameIdentifier>
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      <contributorName>Soans, Erika</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-6858-2081</nameIdentifier>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Struve, Svenja</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-9151-3618</nameIdentifier>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Vogler, Anselm</contributorName>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Wickel, Martin</contributorName>
      <affiliation>HafenCity Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Wiener, Antje</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-3882-3331</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Wilkens, Jan</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0002-6263-1540</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Universität Hamburg</affiliation>
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    <contributor contributorType="Researcher">
      <contributorName>Zengerling, Cathrin</contributorName>
      <nameIdentifier nameIdentifierScheme="ORCID" schemeURI="http://orcid.org/">0000-0001-9616-5042</nameIdentifier>
      <affiliation>Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN)</affiliation>
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  <dates>
    <date dateType="Issued">2023-02-01</date>
  </dates>
  <language>en</language>
  <resourceType resourceTypeGeneral="Text">Report</resourceType>
  <alternateIdentifiers>
    <alternateIdentifier alternateIdentifierType="url">https://www.fdr.uni-hamburg.de/record/11230</alternateIdentifier>
  </alternateIdentifiers>
  <relatedIdentifiers>
    <relatedIdentifier relatedIdentifierType="URL" relationType="IsSourceOf">https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html</relatedIdentifier>
    <relatedIdentifier relatedIdentifierType="URL" relationType="IsCitedBy">https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de</relatedIdentifier>
    <relatedIdentifier relatedIdentifierType="DOI" relationType="IsPartOf">10.25592/uhhfdm.9103</relatedIdentifier>
  </relatedIdentifiers>
  <version>2/2023</version>
  <rightsList>
    <rights rightsURI="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International</rights>
    <rights rightsURI="info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess">Open Access</rights>
  </rightsList>
  <descriptions>
    <description descriptionType="Abstract">&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Series&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;In the annual Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, CLICCS researchers make the first systematic attempt to assess which climate futures are plausible, by combining multidisciplinary assessments of plausibility.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Current Issue&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;The purpose of this second &lt;em&gt;Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook&lt;/em&gt; is to systematically analyze and assess the plausibility of certain well-defined climate futures based on present knowledge of social drivers and physical processes. In particular, we assess the plausibility of those climate futures that are envisioned by the 2015 Paris Agreement, namely holding global warming to well below 2&amp;deg;C and, if possible, to 1.5&amp;deg;C, relative to pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC 2015, Article 2 paragraph 1a). The world will have to reach a state of deep decarbonization by 2050 to be compliant with the 1.5&amp;deg;C goal. We therefore work with a climate future scenario that combines emissions and temperature goals.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Websites&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html"&gt;www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/results/hamburg-climate-futures-outlook.html&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de"&gt;www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
    <description descriptionType="Other">Funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy – EXC 2037 'CLICCS - Climate, Climatic Change, and Society' – Project Number: 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universität Hamburg.</description>
  </descriptions>
</resource>
Publication date:
February 1, 2023
DOI:
10.25592/uhhfdm.11230

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Keyword(s):
CLICCS, Climate Research, Climate Plausibility, Climate Futures, Social driver of decarbonization, Climate tipping points, 1.5°C warming, Decarbonization, Paris Agreement temperature goals, societal transformation for climate change, Sustainable climate adaptation, HCFO, Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook, DFG Project number 390683824,
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Version 2/2023 10.25592/uhhfdm.11230 Feb 1, 2023
Version 1/2021 10.25592/uhhfdm.9104 Jun 9, 2021
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